Utah Mathematics: Can a McMullin Vote be a Vote for Clinton?

We’ve all heard it:

“A VOTE FOR MCMULLIN IS A VOTE FOR CLINTON!”

Um. No. Not true. Not even mathematically possible in Utah (where McMullin has the best chance).

Let’s run the numbers. This is where the poll averages for Utah currently stand:

Trump 37.8%
Clinton 26.5%
McMullin 25.8%

The best case scenario whereby McMullin gives Clinton the victory is possible where he steals votes only from Trump, and he needs to only steal barely enough so that he ties Trump, thereby keeping the bar low enough as possible for Clinton to take the lead. That means that within the next 4 days McMullin will need to take 16%a of Trump’s current Utah votes, and Clinton will have to increase her Utah vote count by 22%b of her current count, all within the next 4 days.

That is an IMPOSSIBLE scenario. McMullin stealing votes from Trump is possible (McMullin has been doing that since day 1) but if you look at the votes for Clinton over the last 2 months Clinton has been the most consistent, never getting higher than 30.5%, which is not enough to win even if McMullin beats down Trump so they’re tied. Furthermore now she’s at 26.5% in Utah and dropping (thanks to the email scandal reboot).

McMullin took the bulk of his major surge in early October from Clinton and Johnson, not Trump … all while Trump increased at the same time. Trump voters now pretend a vote for McMullin is a vote for Clinton. In Utah Clinton’s path to victory doesn’t exist as long as McMullin exists.

But it’s even less likely that that (less possible than impossible?) because Clinton’s needed votes have to come from somewhere. Where is she getting her needed votes (since they won’t come from Trump)? They have to come from McMullin and if she’s taking that much from McMullin then Trump’s probably is too, thereby putting his numbers above 50% in that scenario. How would Hillary beat 50%? It’s mathematically impossible.

There is no mathematically possible path for Clinton to win Utah. Ever. No matter what McMullin does.

So there you have it. Math. Math doesn’t lie. Somehow however I don’t think that will keep paranoid Trump supporters from screaming that McMullin is taking what they feel Trump rightly owns. Incidentally, it’s just that attitude why people are voting for McMullin. It’s sad when people can’t accept accountability for their own misfortunes.

If McMullin forces anything upon Trump it will probably be a delayed victory since Trump may have to beg the House for the Presidency (thank you McMullin for making that happen) and accept that he didn’t win by popular vote nor by majority electoral vote. Even then there is no guarantee they will give it too him. He’ll will have to “up his game” so to speak in order to get their buy-in. Which is a good thing, because Trump’s fear-mongering game stinks. In the meantime you can be sure he’ll spout a bunch of baloney about a “constitutional crisis”. There is no crisis … there is a solution in place, whether an incoming president is facing impeachment, or whether nobody wins 170 votes. The crisis only happening in the minds of those who can’t seem to win the election on character and principle.

Notes:
a — he’ll need to steal (37.8%+25.8%)/2 = 6% from Trump which is a transfer of about (6%/37.8%)=16% of Trump’s existing votes to McMullin
b — Clinton will need (25.8%+6%) = 31.8% which is a 5.7% gain, which represents a (5.7/25.8)=22% increase of her current vote count